The Home Office has opened its long-awaited consultation for proposals on a new “earned settlement” model. This framework dictates that migrants must demonstrate abiding contributions to the UK economy and society before they are granted permanent residence (ILR). The proposal includes plans to increase the current qualifying period for ILR from five years to ten years.
Consultation Document and Key Dates
A 60-page document, titled A Fairer Pathway to Settlement: A statement and accompanying consultation on sustainable settlement, has been published and is available for public response.
- Consultation Period: The consultation is open for responses until 11:59 pm on 12 February 2026.
- Implementation Target: Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood told Parliament that the government will begin implementing the changes in April 2026.
The Home Secretary stated: “This document sets out how we will introduce a new model of settlement that is earned, not automatic. I invite all of those who have an interest in this matter to respond to this consultation with their views and recommendations.”
The Structure of the New ‘Earned Settlement’ Model
The core of the government’s plan is a new time adjustment model built on four distinct pillars that applicants must satisfy:
| Pillar | Requirement Detail |
| Character | Compliance with immigration requirements, and a clean criminal record. The thresholds for criminal records are currently under review. Meeting these requirements is mandatory and cannot be traded off against other considerations. |
| Integration | Applicants must demonstrate meaningful engagement with British society, including speaking English to a high standard and potentially volunteering. |
| Contribution | Making a sustained and assessable economic contribution, primarily through high-level participation and tax contributions. Applicants must also have no debt in the UK. |
| Residence | Proof of lawful, connected residence in the UK. However, residence alone will not typically be sufficient for qualification. |
Changes to the Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) Qualifying Period
The proposal significantly increases the baseline period required for settlement, with differentiated pathways based on contribution and conduct.
New Baseline and Extended Periods
- Standard Baseline: The default qualifying period is set to increase from the current 5 years to 10 years.
- Low-Skilled Workers: A separate baseline qualifying period of 15 years is proposed for lower-skilled workers (below RQF level 6) who arrived on routes like the Health and Care visa. This is based on concerns that these migrants, particularly those with non-working dependants, may present “significant budgetary costs” to the UK once eligible for benefits (currently set to begin in 2027).
Accelerated Settlement (Shorter Periods)
The 10-year baseline can be reduced for individuals who make an “outsized contribution”:
- 3 Years: Available for high earners, entrepreneurs, Global Talent, and Innovator Founder visa holders.
- 5 Years: Available for frontline public service workers.
- Reductions in the qualifying period will be accessible for demonstrating affiliation (English proficiency, volunteering) and higher tax contributions.
- Separate Fast Track: Settlement will be quicker (outside of this consultation) for those with strong attachments, such as the spouses and dependants of British citizens and British Nationals (Overseas) (BN(O)s).
III. Delayed Settlement (Penalties)
Longer waiting periods are proposed for those who “contribute less to our public life” or have breached immigration rules:
- Up to a 30-year delay: Applied to illegal migrants and visa overstayers. This aims to strongly discourage entering the country via irregular routes.
- 20-year wait: Applied to migrants who are claiming benefits payments. This follows the announcement of a new 20-year path for refugees on the new ‘core protection’ support.
Rationale, Scope, and Fiscal Impact
Addressing Immigration Scale and Impact
The Home Secretary cited the “unprecedented” scale of net migration between 2021 and 2024 (an added 2.6 million people) under the previous government, arguing that it has reached a level that has “destabilised” the country and is placing “immense pressure on local communities.”
The consultation is explicitly seeking options to reduce the anticipated volume of settlement grants, which are projected to reach around 1.6 million between 2026 and 2030, peaking at about 450,000 annually in 2028. The measures-including increasing the baseline period and implementing a No Recourse to Public Funds (NRPF) policy at settlement-are intended to manage future demand and address the “budgetary impact” of rising immigration levels.
Impact on Current Residents and Exemptions
The proposed changes are substantial and described as the “biggest revolution of the legal immigration system in almost half a century.”
- Crucial Transitional Rule: The changes will apply to “anybody in the country today who has not already received indefinite leave to remain.” This means those due to qualify for settlement in the coming months and years will be subject to the new, higher requirements.
- Exemptions: Those who already hold settled status will not be affected. Furthermore, settled status under the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) and grants related to the Windrush Arrangement are out of scope for these reforms.
Rights and Public Funds
The consultation paper also raises the question of what rights should be provided by settled status. It proposes that benefits should not be accessible to those with settled status, suggesting they should instead be reserved for those who have attained British citizenship.
Current Definition of Settlement
Settlement (ILR) is a prerequisite for British naturalization. It is defined as having no time limit on stay and being ordinarily resident, granting the right to live permanently in the UK without conditions on accessing the labour market and public funds. It can only be revoked for reasons of criminality, deception, or significant non-conducive reasons.
Of the approximately 70 different routes in the Immigration Rules, about 40 currently lead to settlement, falling into categories such as Work, Family, Protection, and Other (e.g., long residence, victims of domestic violence).
Overview of Existing Settlement Routes
Figure 1 summarises various routes leading to settlement (ILR), detailing the required time in the UK and key eligibility criteria (where ‘X’ indicates the requirement applies).
| Route | Time in UK (years) | Continued Residence | Knowledge of English | Life in the UK |
| Skilled Worker | 5 | X | At entry clearance | X |
| T2 Minister of Religion | 5 | X | At entry clearance | X |
| Representative of an Overseas Business | 5 | X | X | X |
| UK Ancestry | 5 | X | X | X |
| Global Talent | 3-5 | X | X | X |
| Scale Up Worker | 5 | X | At entry clearance | X |
| Innovator Founder | 3 | X | At entry clearance | X |
| International Sportsperson | 5 | X | X | X |
| Hong Kong BN(O) | 5 | X | X | X |
| Private Life (adult) | 10 | X | X | X |
| Family Life (partner, parent) | 5-10 | X | X | X |
| Protection | 5 | |||
| Long Residence | 10 | X | X | X |
| Discretionary leave | 10 | |||
| Victims of Domestic Abuse | Immediate | |||
| Bereaved Partners | Immediate | |||
| Children of settled parents | Immediate or 7 years |
Note: This document does not include those granted settled or pre-settled status under the EUSS.
Historical Settlement Application Trends (2004-2024)
The number of ILR grants is influenced by previous visa allowances, policy changes, and operational factors.
- Peak in 2010: Grants peaked in 2010 at approximately 250,000, largely due to 82,295 grants on a discretionary basis aimed at clearing outstanding case backlogs.
- Post-2010 Drop: From 2011 to 2024, grants averaged 111,000 per year. The dip from 2010 to 2016 was partly due to a 2012 policy change that extended the residence requirement for Family visas from 2 to 5 years, delaying some grants.
- Recent Rise (Since 2017): Settlement grants have been rising since 2017, reaching 163,000 in the year ending Q2 2025 (up 18% from the previous year). This is attributed to increased visa grants on settlement routes and a rise in extensions of stay.
- Primary Routes to Settlement (2021-2024): The majority of individuals achieving settlement during this period initially came to the UK on Work routes (31% in 2024) or Family routes (30% in 2024).
- Dependants: Dependants (spouses or children) accounted for 26% of all settlement grants between 2021 and 2024.
- Study Route Conversions: While Study was the initial entry route for 13% of settlers (2021-2024), it only accounted for 1% of the prior class of leave at the point of application. This shows students generally must switch onto a Work or Family route before applying for ILR.
Future Settlement Forecast (2026-2030)
The Home Office anticipates a significant increase in settlement volumes over the next five years due to the unprecedented levels of immigration between 2021 and 2024.
- Overall Estimate: The central appraisal forecasts that between 1.3 million and 2.2 million people will settle in the UK between 2026 and 2030, with a central estimate of 1.6 million.
- Peak Year: The volume is projected to peak in 2028 at a central estimate of 450,000 grants.
This surge is primarily driven by three large cohorts who become eligible after 5 years of residence:
| Cohort | Entry Years | Eligibility Window | Forecasted Applications (2026–2030) | Peak Year Forecast |
| Hong Kong BN(O) | 2021-2022 | 2026-2027 | 146,000 (92k in 2026, 54k in 2027) | 2026 |
| Health and Care Visas (616,000 entrants 2022-2024) | 2022-2024 | 2027-2029 | 384,000 | 2028 (210,000) |
| Other Skilled Worker (344,000 entrants 2022-2024) | 2022-2024 | 2027-2029 | 222,000 | 2028 |
- Dependants: The high number of dependants brought by Skilled Worker applicants (including Health and Care) since 2021 is expected to push up settlement numbers further, as applicants with dependants show a greater likelihood of applying for settlement.
Characteristics of Recent Migrants on Settlement Pathways
The characteristics of the migrant population eligible for settlement are changing, moving towards lower-skilled roles and higher numbers of dependants.
Changes in Work Migration
- Shift to Lower-Skilled Roles: The introduction of the Skilled Worker visa (replacing Tier 2 in 2020) expanded eligibility from RQF Level 6 (graduate level) and above to include RQF Levels 3 to 5 (lower-skilled roles). By the year ending June 2024, 53% of Skilled Worker principal visas were for roles below RQF 6.
- Impact of Health and Care Visa: The inclusion of Senior Carer and Care Worker roles in February 2022 sharply increased visas for lower-skilled occupations. In 2023, 75% of Skilled Worker visas on the Health and Care route were issued for occupations below RQF Level 6, up from 11% in 2021.
- Dependants Increase: The average number of dependants per principal applicant has risen:
- Tier 2 (2016–2019): 0.74 dependants per applicant.
- Skilled Worker (2021–2024): 1.14 dependants per applicant.
- Health and Care visa holders brought notably more dependants, with 56% of new Health and Care visas in 2022–2023 being issued to dependants.
Economic and Fiscal Impacts
The increase in lower-skilled migrants and their dependants raises fiscal concerns:
- Lower Salaries: Migrants in RQF 3-5 occupations typically have lower salaries. The median salary for migrants in RQF 3–5 roles was about £12,000 lower than the overall route medians in 2024/25.
- Care Worker Wages: Median salaries for Senior Care and Care Workers in 2023/24 were between £23,000 and £26,000, significantly below the UK median full-time salary of £37,000.
- Fiscal Contribution: For migrants to achieve a positive fiscal contribution (contributing more in tax than they cost in public services), they must have higher earnings. The changing structure towards lower-skilled, higher-dependant cohorts suggests a significant measure of migrants from 2026–2030 will have lower salaries than previous cohorts.
III. Changes in Family and Study Migration
- Family Migration: The Minimum Income Requirement (MIR) for a partner on the Family visa was raised by 56% to £29,000 in April 2024, the first increase since 2012. Forecasted settlement (approx. 280,000 between 2026-2030) from this route will predominantly be migrants who arrived before the 2024 MIR increase.
Study Migration: Student visa issuance doubled from an average of 238,000 per year (2017–2019) to 532,000 per year (2021–2023), with a corresponding increase in dependants (0.06 to 0.26 per
Fiscal Impacts and The Design of the ‘Earned Settlement’ System
The government’s proposal for an ‘Earned Settlement’ model is heavily informed by analysis of the fiscal impact of migrants over time and aims to use a flexible “time adjustment” approach to manage the future demographic and financial burden on public services.
Fiscal Analysis of Migrants
Cost Variation Over Time
The fiscal impact of a migrant changes throughout their residency. While initial costs or contributions vary, costs tend to increase over time as migrants age, have children, and later gain access to benefits and the State Pension upon achieving settlement.
- As of June 2025, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) reported that 213,000 settled migrants were claiming Universal Credit.
Cumulative Fiscal Impact by Wage Level
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) analyzed the cumulative fiscal impact of a representative migrant arriving at age 25, based on their wage level:
- High-wage (£49,700, 30% above average)
- Average-wage (£38,200)
- Low-wage (£19,100, 50% below average)
The OBR found that:
- Migrants in RQF 6 roles (like Skilled Worker) and “high-value” routes (like Global Talent) are likely to perform as “average-wage” or “high-wage” migrants, making a net positive cumulative fiscal contribution.
- Migrants in RQF 3-5 roles (like Senior Care and Care Workers) make less of a contribution than “average-wage” migrants but still perform better than the “low-wage” category, which never achieves a net positive fiscal contribution in the long run.
- Older migrants (arriving after age 25) with the same salary will have a lower cumulative budgetary impact as they have fewer working years remaining in the UK.
- Households with children require significantly higher public spending in the short term, meaning parents need to earn substantially more to achieve a net positive contribution. Between 2021 and 2024, 27% of Health and Care visa applications were for children under 16.
Recent and Proposed Further Rule Changes
The composition of future migrant cohorts is already changing due to recent and upcoming policy amendments:
- 2024 Changes (Implemented): Restrictions were placed on dependants for Senior Care, Care Workers, and Student visa holders. The minimum salary threshold for the Skilled Worker visa was also raised to £38,700.
- Spring 2025 White Paper Changes (Upcoming): Requirements will be further tightened to reduce net migration:
- The skills threshold for the Skilled Worker route (including Health and Care) will be raised to RQF 6, effectively closing the Senior Care and Care Worker route to new entrants.
- Increased minimum salary thresholds and tightened dependant restrictions for routes via the Shortage Occupation List.
Key Requirements of the New Earned Settlement System
The proposed system operates on a ‘time adjustment’ model, where the qualifying period is flexible (up or down) from a baseline period of 10 years for most migrants.
Core Design Principles
The system is guided by four core pillars, designed to ensure clear, assessable standards for a meaningful contribution:
- Character: Mandatory refusal for applications based on conduct (e.g., criminal conviction, non-compliance). A fundamental review of crime thresholds is underway, with the expectation that applicants should not be able to settle with a criminal record.
- Integration: Applicants must demonstrate meaningful engagement with British society.
- Contribution: Rewarding individuals who have made a sustained and assessable economic contribution to the UK.
- Residence: Recognising lawful, connected abode; applicants will not qualify based on residence alone.
Reductions to the Baseline Qualifying Period
The baseline 10-year period can be reduced based on criteria tied to Contribution and Integration (Table 2 in the original text):
| Pillar | Attribute | Adjustment to Baseline (Reduction) | Rationale |
| Integration | English competency at C1 Level or above | Minus 1 year | Higher competency than the required B2 minimum. |
| Contribution | Taxable income of £125,140 for 3 years prior to application | Minus 7 years | Aligns with the Additional Rate Income Tax threshold. |
| Contribution | Taxable income of £50,270 for 3 years prior to application | Minus 5 years | Aligns with the Higher Rate Income Tax threshold. |
| Contribution | 5 years working in a defined public service role (RQF 6+) | Minus 5 years | Recognizes vital service where salaries may not meet income thresholds. |
| Contribution | Volunteering/Community Work | Minus 3–5 years | Recognizes commitment to civil society. |
| Entry/Residence | Family members of a British Citizen/BN(O) holder | Minus 5 years (Not consulted) | Maintains the current 5-year pathway for these groups. |
| Entry/Residence | Global Talent or Innovator Founder (3 years connected abode) | Minus 7 years | Maintains the accelerated 3-year pathway for high-skilled routes. |
Note: The income thresholds are proposed to be higher than initial entry salary requirements to reward progression and economic contribution post-entry.
III. Increases to the Baseline Qualifying Period
Negative factors, non-compliance, and claiming public funds will increase the required settlement period (Table 3 in the original text). Only the single consideration that causes the largest increase will be applied, taking priority over any reductions.
| Pillar | Attribute | Adjustment to Baseline (Increase) | Rationale |
| Entry/Residence | Entered UK illegally (e.g., small boat/clandestine) | Plus up to 20 years | To strongly discourage illegal entry. |
| Entry/Residence | Overstayed permission for 6 months or more | Plus up to 20 years | Extends the waiting time for non-compliance. |
| Entry/Residence | Entered UK on a Visitor visa | Plus up to 20 years | Addresses misuse of the visitor route. |
| Contribution | Received public funds for less than 12 months | Plus 5 years | Penalizes negative financial contribution. |
| Contribution | Received public funds for more than 12 months | Plus 10 years | Penalizes sustained reliance on the state. |
A person who entered illegally could face a pathway to settlement as long as 30 years (10-year baseline + 20-year penalty).
Impact on Existing Routes and Rights
- Long Residence Route: The existing 10-year Long Residence route will be abolished, as its purpose will be superseded by the new flexible baseline and integration criteria.
- Skilled Worker Route: With the exception of certain fast-track routes (Global Talent/Innovator), most routes that currently lead to settlement after 5 years (like the Skilled Worker route) will now default to a 10-year period, unless an earned reduction applies.
- Refugees: Those recognized as refugees will have a baseline of 20 years for settlement, though those who move onto new work/study routes can earn reductions. Resettled refugees (via official programmes) will start at 10 years, aligning with other planned migration routes.
- Public Funds at Settlement: The consultation seeks views on whether ILR should be granted subject to a “No Recourse to Public Funds” (NRPF) condition. This would shift the default position, meaning the right to access benefits would move from Settlement to Citizenship.
- Dependants: The settlement qualifying period for adult dependants will be individually determined based on their own attributes and circumstances, meaning it may differ from the principal applicant’s path. However, dependants will still only be able to qualify if the principal applicant also qualifies.
The consultation also seeks views on special provisions for vulnerable groups (e.g., victims of domestic abuse, bereaved partners) and safeguards for children who turn 18 while their parents are qualifying for settlement.
principal applicant.
- Switching: Evidence suggests a large proportion of international students who switch into work routes are moving into RQF 6 roles or below, with 49% of those switching directly from the Student route entering Senior Care Worker or Care Worker roles.
- Settlement: Although student numbers have risen significantly, the Home Office forecasts only 105,000 settlement grants from this route between 2026 and 2030 based on historical behaviour. However, the introduction of the Graduate route in 2021 and the higher dependant ratio may lead to a higher proportion of this cohort settling long-term.
Special Considerations: HM Armed Forces, Transitional Rules, and Future Citizenship
This section outlines the government’s approach to the Armed Forces Covenant, the necessary measures to manage the transition to the new ‘Earned Settlement’ system, and the intended future reforms to British Citizenship.
HM Armed Forces and the Covenant
The government remains committed to the Armed Forces Covenant, which is a national promise ensuring that those who serve or have served in HM Armed Forces, including non-UK personnel, and their families, do not face disadvantage due to their service. This commitment recognises the personal sacrifices, including the loss of civilian freedoms, made in defending the UK.
- The consultation will seek views on how Armed Forces members should be assessed under the new ‘Earned Settlement’ system.
- Current Pathway Maintained: The government is not proposing any change to the current settlement pathway for HM Armed Forces and their family members at this time.
Transitional Arrangements for Policy Change
Transitional arrangements are temporary rules established to manage the shift from one system or legal framework to another.
- Impact on Current Migrants: Without these arrangements, the implementation of the ‘Earned Settlement’ policy would directly affect individuals already in the system who are currently on a settlement pathway but have not yet achieved settled status when the new Immigration Rules come into force.
- Purpose: These measures are intended to ease the impact of the policy change, especially for individuals or groups who were granted permissions under the preceding system.
- Consultation Focus: The consultation specifically seeks views on whether transitional arrangements should be put in place for those already on a pathway to settlement.
Future Reforms to British Citizenship
The Immigration White Paper announced that reforms to citizenship will follow the proposed changes to settlement.
- Building on Settlement: The citizenship reforms will build on the ‘Earned Settlement’ approach, aiming to reflect similar principles: extending qualifying periods while allowing those who have demonstrated greater contributions to qualify sooner.
- Legislation Required: Any changes to British citizenship will require primary legislation to amend the British Nationality Act 1981.
- System Cohesion: It is understood that the process for achieving settlement and then moving on to citizenship must be carefully designed to work seamlessly and logically for both the applicant and the immigration system itself.
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