Net migration to the UK could rise to around 300,000 by the end of the decade, according to Professor Brian Bell, chair of the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC).
Bell said the increase would occur “in the medium term” as the number of overseas students and workers grows again. His prediction aligns with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which recently forecast a similar rise in its economic and fiscal outlook.
“I might expect a bit of a bounceback consistent with what the OBR predicts… returning to around 300,000 in the medium term,” Bell noted.
Net migration peaked at 944,000 in the year to March 2023, largely due to a surge of foreign workers encouraged to come to the UK during the post-COVID recovery under Boris Johnson’s government. Since then, numbers have fallen sharply.
ONS data for the year to June 2025 show net migration dropped 69%, from 649,000 to 204,000. Around 900,000 people immigrated to the UK between July 2024 and June 2025, down over 400,000 from the previous year, while 693,000 people emigrated, an increase of 43,000.
Bell’s remarks coincided with the release of two MAC reports. One report highlights the fiscal impact of family visas, noting that around 51,000 people entered the UK in 2022-23 as partners. Over half were unemployed, and each is projected to have a net fiscal cost of £109,000, amounting to £5.6bn over their lifetimes.
The committee also urged the government to address abuse and exploitation on the overseas domestic worker (ODW) route, which brings nannies, housekeepers, chauffeurs, and personal carers into the UK. The MAC report stated:
“The scale of exploitation and abuse on the ODW route is unknown… but abuse does occur, and the route allows employers who wish to exploit workers to operate more or less unchecked. Enforcement is difficult, but more could be done to reduce risks.”
In contrast, the committee’s earlier estimates show that skilled workers arriving in 2022–23 are expected to make a net positive lifetime contribution of around £47bn to the UK public finances, after accounting for long-term public service use by settled migrants and their families.