More than 300,000 children already living in the United Kingdom may be required to wait up to 10 years before qualifying for settled status under the government’s proposed “earned settlement” reforms, according to new analysis by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR).
The think tank estimates that around 23% of the 1.35 million people currently on routes to settlement are children, most of whom are dependents of migrant workers. If the government proceeds with plans to extend the standard settlement period from five years to 10 years, a large proportion of these children could spend much of their childhood without secure immigration status.
The proposals have sparked growing concern among Labour MPs and migrant advocacy groups. Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood is facing criticism from within her own party over the potential impact on families already living in the UK. Around 40 Labour MPs have warned that applying the changes retrospectively would be unfair to migrants who entered the UK under the expectation that they would qualify for settlement after five years.
Under the government’s plans, most migrant workers would need to complete 10 years before qualifying for indefinite leave to remain (ILR). For workers in roles below graduate level – including many in the care sector – the default route could extend to 15 years.
Settlement, or indefinite leave to remain, allows a person to live, work and study in the UK without time restrictions and, if eligible, access certain public benefits. Critics argue that changing the rules for people already on settlement pathways could prolong uncertainty for families and disrupt long-term planning.
IPPR warns that delaying settlement for families could have serious consequences for children’s futures. Without secure status, many young people may face barriers to higher education, student finance and stable employment when they reach adulthood. The thinktank also highlights the risk of increased child poverty if families remain restricted from accessing certain support and benefits for longer periods.
At a minimum, IPPR is calling for a clear transitional protection clause to ensure that migrants already on settlement routes are not affected by retrospective changes.
Marley Morris, associate director for migration, trade and communities at IPPR, said families who moved to the UK under one set of rules should not have those rules changed mid-journey. He warned that the proposals could leave hundreds of thousands of children growing up in prolonged uncertainty.
One affected student, 18-year-old Zayne, whose father works as an NHS doctor, said his family made major life decisions based on the five-year settlement pathway. He now faces uncertainty about his ability to attend university in the UK without access to student finance if the qualifying period is extended.
During a Westminster Hall debate, several MPs criticised the retrospective nature of the proposals. Folkestone and Hythe MP Tony Vaughan described the approach as “moving the goalposts after the game has started”, while York Central MP Rachael Maskell warned the reforms could worsen the UK’s skills shortages.
Mahmood told MPs that settlement in the UK is a “privilege, not a right” and argued that extending the qualifying period is reasonable. She suggested that while the default route may be lengthened, there could be mechanisms allowing some migrants to qualify sooner under certain conditions.
The government has not yet confirmed final details of transitional arrangements, and consultation on how the rules will apply to those already in the UK is ongoing.
Lawsentis view: The proposed extension of the UK settlement period to 10 years could significantly affect families already living in the country, particularly children on dependent visas. The key concern is whether the changes will be applied retrospectively to those who entered under a five-year route, which would create uncertainty around education, finances and long-term planning. Clear transitional protections and detailed Home Office guidance will be essential. Until final rules are confirmed, migrants and sponsors should review their immigration timelines and seek professional advice to understand how the reforms may impact their path to settlement.
News Sources: The Guardian